Ruido: Un Fallo En El Juicio Humano / Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
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- Create Date：2021-09-14 02:51:01
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Daniel Kahneman
- ISBN：8418006366
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Summary
PARA ENTENDER C�MO PENSAMOS Y PENSAR MEJOR， HAY QUE LEER A KAHNEMAN。 --Premio Nobel de Econom�a
Dos m�dicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagn�sticos diferentes a pacientes id�nticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra seg�n sea por la ma�ana o por la tarde， o seg�n se acerque o no la hora de comer。 Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deber�an ser iguales。
El ruido est� presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas， y produce errores en innumerables terrenos， desde la medicina hasta la econom�a， pasando por el derecho， la sanidad， la protecci�n infantil y la contrataci�n。 Adem�s， tambi�n nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas。
Daniel Kahneman， uno de los psic�logos m�s importantes del mundo， junto con Cass R。 Sunstein y Olivier Sibony， dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estrat�gico， nos ense�an a escuchar ese ruido， cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar， y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios。 Basado en el mismo tipo de an�lisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirti� Pensar r�pido， pensar despacio en un best seller internacional， Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales， pr�cticos y sencillos para pensar mejor。
ENGLISH DESCRIPTION
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking， Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge， a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--a tour de force" （New York Times）。
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime。 Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints， the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone。 Now imagine that the same doctor， the same judge， the same interviewer， or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon， or Monday rather than Wednesday。 These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical。
In Noise， Daniel Kahneman， Olivier Sibony， and Cass R。 Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields， including medicine， law， economic forecasting， forensic science， bail， child protection， strategy， performance reviews， and personnel selection。 Wherever there is judgment， there is noise。 Yet， most of the time， individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it。 They neglect noise。 With a few simple remedies， people can reduce both noise and bias， and so make far better decisions。
Packed with original ideas， and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking， Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers， Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it。
Dos m�dicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagn�sticos diferentes a pacientes id�nticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra seg�n sea por la ma�ana o por la tarde， o seg�n se acerque o no la hora de comer。 Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deber�an ser iguales。
El ruido est� presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas， y produce errores en innumerables terrenos， desde la medicina hasta la econom�a， pasando por el derecho， la sanidad， la protecci�n infantil y la contrataci�n。 Adem�s， tambi�n nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas。
Daniel Kahneman， uno de los psic�logos m�s importantes del mundo， junto con Cass R。 Sunstein y Olivier Sibony， dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estrat�gico， nos ense�an a escuchar ese ruido， cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar， y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios。 Basado en el mismo tipo de an�lisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirti� Pensar r�pido， pensar despacio en un best seller internacional， Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales， pr�cticos y sencillos para pensar mejor。
ENGLISH DESCRIPTION
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking， Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge， a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--a tour de force" （New York Times）。
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime。 Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints， the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone。 Now imagine that the same doctor， the same judge， the same interviewer， or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon， or Monday rather than Wednesday。 These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical。
In Noise， Daniel Kahneman， Olivier Sibony， and Cass R。 Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields， including medicine， law， economic forecasting， forensic science， bail， child protection， strategy， performance reviews， and personnel selection。 Wherever there is judgment， there is noise。 Yet， most of the time， individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it。 They neglect noise。 With a few simple remedies， people can reduce both noise and bias， and so make far better decisions。
Packed with original ideas， and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking， Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers， Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it。
Reviews
Ceil
，
Important， useful， a slog
Carlos Alberto Ledezma
，
Good narrative and very interesting propositions。 Bu very repetitive and， in my opinion， unnecessarily long。
Hamid Khatibi
，
Nice ideas， worth reading。 I expected more practical ideas to learn how to take signal out of the noise！
Uninvited
，
3 Holy Bibles exist on this earth: The classic one; The masterpiece by Manic Street Preachers; And Thinking， Fast and Slow。 Indeed， TFaS is the Holy Bible of the 21st century。 It was， therefore， only natural that I'd rush to read Daniel Kahneman's new book， that was supposed to compliment TFaS。 Unfortunately， I found it pretty underwhelming。The book talks about Noise， which， along with Bias （TFaS's subject） are the two banes of thinking and decision making。 However， it gets overly technical and 3 Holy Bibles exist on this earth: The classic one; The masterpiece by Manic Street Preachers; And Thinking， Fast and Slow。 Indeed， TFaS is the Holy Bible of the 21st century。 It was， therefore， only natural that I'd rush to read Daniel Kahneman's new book， that was supposed to compliment TFaS。 Unfortunately， I found it pretty underwhelming。The book talks about Noise， which， along with Bias （TFaS's subject） are the two banes of thinking and decision making。 However， it gets overly technical and overly repetitive。 Noise needs to be taken seriously， as stated in the epilogue， and this book does offer some very interesting insights， but they are drowned among technicalities that get rehashed over and over。 。。。more
Ravi Kanth
，
This book deserves multiple readings in a life time。。
Suzanne Marquart
，
Take a look at page 302， "Noise in Interviewing" and ask yourself if the pronoun "she" should be changed to "their"， not only for syntax but also to eliminate the gender bias that using the female pronoun brings to the discussion。 Unless I overlooked a previous case study that legitimizes using the female pronoun here， I hold that this perpetuates a bias surrounding the risks of hiring females - a very big noise。It undermined the credibility of the authors for me。 Suzanne Marquart Take a look at page 302， "Noise in Interviewing" and ask yourself if the pronoun "she" should be changed to "their"， not only for syntax but also to eliminate the gender bias that using the female pronoun brings to the discussion。 Unless I overlooked a previous case study that legitimizes using the female pronoun here， I hold that this perpetuates a bias surrounding the risks of hiring females - a very big noise。It undermined the credibility of the authors for me。 Suzanne Marquart 。。。more
Zulugoat
，
Very disappointingThere is basically 30 pages of interesting results， arguments， propped up into a full 'book'。Introductions， conclusions， summaries at nauseum， then are variously engineered to fill the balance。 Reminds me of when I was in high school trying to reach a specific word count target and essentially， filled pages after pages of 'crap'。The argumentation reminds me of a bad book I read last year， called 'Mosquito' or something like that， where the author basically believed that he coul Very disappointingThere is basically 30 pages of interesting results， arguments， propped up into a full 'book'。Introductions， conclusions， summaries at nauseum， then are variously engineered to fill the balance。 Reminds me of when I was in high school trying to reach a specific word count target and essentially， filled pages after pages of 'crap'。The argumentation reminds me of a bad book I read last year， called 'Mosquito' or something like that， where the author basically believed that he could convince us of the reasonableness of his points by just repeating them。。。 It's here also very very basic， and unconvincing。。。 they have almost convinced me of the opposite actually， that noise is probably good。。。 if that's the best one can do to make me think otherwise， with a Nobel-prize winner， no-less， than it's probably a good thing？ （amused half-interrogatory， half-confused face。。。）It probably deserves one star， but I feel like my opinion has been somewhat biased by the low ratings I saw from others。 Essentially seems like the authors wanted to market useless McKinsey-style consulting work at B-level companies， who have no idea what they are doing and would have fallen for the sexy， but useless， b-school， lingo， and they figured a book would help that cause。Thank god， I didn't spend a penny buying this 'book'。。。 OMG， those poor souls。 。。。more
Thomas Hefke
，
Yeah it’s a Kahnemann Book。 But it is not a second thinking fast and slow。 Maybe it’s a mediocre next chapter。
Felice
，
Infereeting theme， great examples， but it's a lot of examples。Could be a bit shorter Infereeting theme， great examples， but it's a lot of examples。Could be a bit shorter 。。。more
Nasos Kladakis
，
2。5 *。 Not a bad book but definitely not a book that i enjoy reading。 Full of data that were backing up specific views for the flows of human judgment。 Tooooo many of them。 non-stop， exhausting amount of data。 And little substance。 I will wait to read the book that will be based on the data of this one and hopefully can be more interesting。 Also i didn't appreciate the fact that the author was not actually Daniel Kahneman （who wrote one of my favorite books of all time） and i felt like i was dec 2。5 *。 Not a bad book but definitely not a book that i enjoy reading。 Full of data that were backing up specific views for the flows of human judgment。 Tooooo many of them。 non-stop， exhausting amount of data。 And little substance。 I will wait to read the book that will be based on the data of this one and hopefully can be more interesting。 Also i didn't appreciate the fact that the author was not actually Daniel Kahneman （who wrote one of my favorite books of all time） and i felt like i was deceived。 。。。more
Christopher Wells
，
A very careful and concise study of inconsistency in decision making across many businesses and endeavors。 A book I wish I had been able to read 30 years ago。 Explains why nobody is terribly good at judgment and why algorithms are almost always better and should inform all our decisions。 The evidence of widespread poor judgment is shocking suggesting that self-confidence is inversely proportional to actual good judgment and fairness。
Michelle Nash
，
Extremely dull and repetitive。 The concepts in this book could be presented in 1/3 of the book。（And I have read many other of Kahneman’s books and enjoyed them， so it is not that this isn’t the genre or level of intellect I enjoy in books。）
Ton Nu Thuy Duong
，
The book， to some extent， has changed the way I look at rules and guidelines
Emma
，
3。5 stars
Yang
，
From the start， the conclusion is known。 So I spent lots of time reading other parts。 Noise is a flaw that I don't think I could handle correctly。 From the start， the conclusion is known。 So I spent lots of time reading other parts。 Noise is a flaw that I don't think I could handle correctly。 。。。more
Perry
，
Having read Kahneman's previous book， I had high expectations of this one。 Unfortunately for me it was too academic to sustain my interest。 It would no doubt be well worth reading by a psychology student。 Having read Kahneman's previous book， I had high expectations of this one。 Unfortunately for me it was too academic to sustain my interest。 It would no doubt be well worth reading by a psychology student。 。。。more
Amber Toro-Keech
，
Great book about the impact of noise and techniques for how we can practice decision hygiene techniques to improve our judgments。 We often talk about the impacts of bias， but hardly ever noise， which is just as much of a problem， if not more when it comes to making accurate judgments。 Highly recommend reading this book to anyone who makes impactful judgments for their work ie managers， analysts， HR professionals and more。
Mohammad Baqir
，
Interested to read the book but you don't have time？ Watch the video summary of the book here: https://youtu。be/nHVkL_rP7SQ Interested to read the book but you don't have time？ Watch the video summary of the book here: https://youtu。be/nHVkL_rP7SQ 。。。more
Kyle Burks
，
Really good。
Eduardo
，
I found this book to be highly impactful for me in my work in statistics， analysis， and decision-making。 I think it demands that we think differently about how we set up our decision-making processes。 I was already working on a presentation about decision-making and I stopped working on it until I finished reading this book because I recognized that I could not tell the story I needed to until I incorporated in the ideas presented in the book。Since I don't work in business or in a large company， I found this book to be highly impactful for me in my work in statistics， analysis， and decision-making。 I think it demands that we think differently about how we set up our decision-making processes。 I was already working on a presentation about decision-making and I stopped working on it until I finished reading this book because I recognized that I could not tell the story I needed to until I incorporated in the ideas presented in the book。Since I don't work in business or in a large company， the last chapters and the appendix on structuring a noise audit were less interesting to me because I find them less applicable but I certainly see the value of these to other readers。Overall， I still highly recommend this book to anyone who holds a decision-making position and wants to learn how they can make better decisions。 。。。more
Bob T
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Detailed analysis of variability in decision making and the causes， basically noise and bias。 Lots of behavioral psychology and statistics， but not so overly complicated that anyone interested would have trouble grasping the main points。
John
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I get what the authors are saying about bias AND noise in judgements。 But this is a a tough book to read because to me it seems （my judgement） that they tried to write this for a lay audience but forgot to have it proofed by reviewers who were not behavioral psychologists。 There is a lot of useful information but I just found that it lacked a little coherence in the subject matter itself。 I feel that it could have been presented a with more clarity。 Maybe because they tried to have three authors I get what the authors are saying about bias AND noise in judgements。 But this is a a tough book to read because to me it seems （my judgement） that they tried to write this for a lay audience but forgot to have it proofed by reviewers who were not behavioral psychologists。 There is a lot of useful information but I just found that it lacked a little coherence in the subject matter itself。 I feel that it could have been presented a with more clarity。 Maybe because they tried to have three authors write this book？The book could also do with a glossary of the useful terms & definitions in the book。 The Review & Conclusion or last chapter is a good summary of the ideas discussed in the book。I really enjoyed Kahneman’s “Thinking， Fast & Slow” and I was a little disappointed with this book。 It’s probably more like 3。5 stars but I couldn’t give it 4 so it got 3。 。。。more
Igor Pejic
，
Wherever there is judgment， there is noise。 Noise is the variation within our own judgement， depending on the context。 Yet mostly we are unaware of it。 Enlightening and research-based。
Chris Boutté
，
When you think of the best research behind our flaws in judgement and decision making， you think of Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman。 I love Kahneman’s work as well as the work and books from Sunstein and Sibony。 So， when I heard about this book， I knew I needed to get it。 But what is “noise”？ If you’ve ever wondered how people and even experts can make different decisions provided the same information， that’s typically due to “noise”。 Or if you’ve wondered why your personal decisions on the s When you think of the best research behind our flaws in judgement and decision making， you think of Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman。 I love Kahneman’s work as well as the work and books from Sunstein and Sibony。 So， when I heard about this book， I knew I needed to get it。 But what is “noise”？ If you’ve ever wondered how people and even experts can make different decisions provided the same information， that’s typically due to “noise”。 Or if you’ve wondered why your personal decisions on the same subject vary， it’s often due to noise as well。 Noise branches off from the original research around thinking errors， so understanding how noise plays a role can help us make better decisions in our lives as well as in the work place。 This is a fantastic book， but much like Kahneman’s previous book， it’s a long one。 I’m a fan of reaching as wide of an audience as possible， and I personally feel that this book was a bit too long。 But who am I to judge？ Kahneman’s previous book still sells like hotcakes to this day。 Hopefully， like the other work from these gentlemen， this book is referenced by other books on the topic of thinking errors and decision making to reach more people。 。。。more
Christian Georgiev
，
As someone who thinks "Thinking Fast and Slow" and "Nudge" are some of the best easily accessible scientific books out there， purchasing this book was a no-brainer for me。 Unfortunately， although this book is not terrible by any means it was vastly disappointing compared to the authors' previous work。 My issues boil down to two things:Firstly， after the first three chapters it became obvious that this is the some of the most basic and generic pop-science I have read in quite a while。 Don't get m As someone who thinks "Thinking Fast and Slow" and "Nudge" are some of the best easily accessible scientific books out there， purchasing this book was a no-brainer for me。 Unfortunately， although this book is not terrible by any means it was vastly disappointing compared to the authors' previous work。 My issues boil down to two things:Firstly， after the first three chapters it became obvious that this is the some of the most basic and generic pop-science I have read in quite a while。 Don't get me wrong， there is definitely a place for Gladwell-type books aimed at the general reader but even for these standards "Noise" does not fare well。 The authors seem to deliberately stray from any mathematical models and economic or cognitive theories of judgement and instead focus heavily on anecdotes and observations。 As a whole， the book does raise some important points however they are never addressed in sufficient detail or in light of proper scientific evidence - a lot of things are just quickly mentioned （in the most basic terms possible） without any real depth。 The scarce discussions of empirical research are very surface level and lack any critically evaluated in terms of reliability/applicability of the findings。 Furthermore the authors introduce some very basic statistics concepts， yet the explanation is very odd and abstract which renders it virtually useless as the readers who are familiar with statistics will not need such explanations and those who do need an explanation will not really understand it。 My second issue with "Noise" is the unpleasantly surprising lack of originality and creativity。 Around 70% of the content of this book has already been discussed in greater detail in various other books/articles/podcasts on the topic （including the authors' own previous work）。 For people with any knowledge about social science， large parts of this book will seem very repetitive and redundant。 What is more， although this book came out in 2021， it reads like a 2010 book: familiar arguments are repeated， while a lot of contemporary issues related to （reducing） noise （i。e。， the dark sides of algorithms） are absent。 All in all， "Noise"is not unreadable but for anyone looking for a scientific discussion on decision making in the increasingly more complex contemporary society or for a follow-up on the research on the brilliant themes raised in "Thinking Fast and Slow" ten years ago， it will just not deliver。 。。。more
Suresh Sivasubramaniam
，
Excellent book！This book is an excellent overview of noise in psychological judgment and decision making。 For those interested in fine parsing of human behavior this book is a rich source of cognitive pleasure。 For others looking for high level summaries read the end of the chapters and go back for details on topics that interest you。
Maggie Holmes
，
I really enjoyed Thinking Fast and Slow， but this book is really a textbook for businesses and other entities who wish to get rid of the "noise" that influences their judgement。 While I know I had noise when I chose books for the library， planned programs or chose books for discussions， this was inherent in being the only one doing this。 I could imagine larger libraries handing around the journals so that a variety of people would chose which books were worth purchasing。 But if that involved ini I really enjoyed Thinking Fast and Slow， but this book is really a textbook for businesses and other entities who wish to get rid of the "noise" that influences their judgement。 While I know I had noise when I chose books for the library， planned programs or chose books for discussions， this was inherent in being the only one doing this。 I could imagine larger libraries handing around the journals so that a variety of people would chose which books were worth purchasing。 But if that involved initialing the reviews， then "noise" would play a part。 One needs to have independent judgements， and also specific criteria。 I don't particularly recommend this book for the general public。 A magazine article on the subject would suffice。 。。。more
Evelyn Petschek
，
Food for thought！ Not as good as the author’s Thinking， Fast and Slow， but still interesting and thought provoking。 Knowing how “noise” influences our decision-making can perhaps help us control for noise and make better ones。 Of particular interest to me was the discussion of objective rules vs subjective rules and their respective impact on compliance。 Audio narration was good。
Mat Beaulieu
，
Wordy and hypothetical。 Wasn't a big fan。 Wordy and hypothetical。 Wasn't a big fan。 。。。more
Adam Ashton
，